Fooled by Randomness ( Incerto #1 )
해외주문/바로드림/제휴사주문/업체배송건의 경우 1+1 증정상품이 발송되지 않습니다.
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북카드
책 소개
이 책이 속한 분야
“[Taleb is] Wall Street’s principal dissident. . . . [Fooled By Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church.”
?Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker
Finally in paperback, the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about the markets and the world.This book is about luck: more precisely how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences.
Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill?the world of business?Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, iconoclastic, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in all of our lives.
작가정보
저자(글) Taleb, Nassim Nicholas
Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to problems of uncertainty, probability, and knowledge. He spent nearly two decades as a businessman and quantitative trader before becoming a full-time philosophical essayist and academic researcher in 2006. Although he spends most of his time in the intense seclusion of his study, or as a flaneur meditating in cafes, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University's Polytechnic Institute. His main subject matter is "decision making under opacity"--that is, a map and a protocol on how we should live in a world we don't understand.
Taleb's books have been published in thirty-three languages.
목차
- Part. I Solon's warning
1. If you're so rich, why aren't you so smart? … 5
2. A bizarre accounting method … 22
3. A mathematical meditation on history … 43
4. Randomness, nonsense, and the scientific intellectual … 70
5. Survival of the least fit - can evolution be fooled by randomness? … 79
6. Skewness and asymmetry … 97
7. The problem of induction … 116
Part. II Monkeys on typewriters
8. Too many millionaires next door … 139
9. It is easier to buy and sell than fry an egg … 149
10. Loser takes all - on the nonlinearities of life … 172
11. Randomness and our mind : we are probability blind … 182
Part. III Wax in my ears
12. Gamblers' ticks and pigeons in a box … 226
13. Carneades comes to Rome : on probability and skepticism … 234
14. Bacchus abandons antony … 245
Epilogue : Solon told you so … 250
Postscript : three afterthoughts in the shower … 253
책 속으로
Chapter 1
Croesus, King of Lydia, was considered the richest man of his time. To this day Romance languages use the expression “rich as Croesus” to describe a person of excessive wealth. He was said to be visited by Solon, the Greek legislator known for his dignity, reserve, upright morals, humility, frugality, wisdom, intelligence, and courage. Solon did not display the smallest surprise at the wealth and splendor surrounding his host, nor the tiniest admiration for their owner. Croesus was so irked by the manifest lack of impression on the part of this illustrious visitor that he attempted to extract from him some acknowledgment. He asked him if he had known a happier man than him. Solon cited the life of a man who led a noble existence and died while in battle. Prodded for more, he gave similar examples of heroic but terminated lives, until Croesus, irate, asked him point-blank if he was not to be considered the happiest man of all. Solon answered: “The observation of the numerous misfortunes that attend all conditions forbids us to grow insolent upon our present enjoyments, or to admire a man’s happiness that may yet, in course of time, suffer change. For the uncertain future has yet to come, with all variety of future; and him only to whom the divinity has [guaranteed] continued happiness until the end we may call happy.”
The modern equivalent has been no less eloquently voiced by the baseball coach Yogi Berra, who seems to have translated Solon’s outburst from the pure Attic Greek into no less pure Brooklyn English with “it ain’t over until it’s over,” or, in a less dignified manner, with “it ain’t over until the fat lady sings.” In addition, aside from his use of the vernacular, the Yogi Berra quote presents an advantage of being true, while the meeting between Croesus and Solon was one of those historical facts that benefited from the imagination of the chroniclers, as it was chronologically impossible for the two men to have been in the same location.
Part I is concerned with the degree to which a situation may yet, in the course of time, suffer change. For we can be tricked by situations involving mostly the activities of the goddess Fortuna?Jupiter’s firstborn daughter. Solon was wise enough to get the following point; that which came with the help of luck could be taken away by luck (and often rapidly and unexpectedly at that). The flipside, which deserves to be considered as well (in fact it is even more of our concern), is that things that come with little help from luck are more resistant to randomness. Solon also had the intuition of a problem that has obsessed science for the past three centuries. It is called the problem of induction. I call it in this book the black swan or the rare event. Solon even understood another linked problem, which I call the skewness issue; it does not matter how frequently something succeeds if failure is too costly to bear.
Yet the story of Croesus has another twist. Having lost a battle to the redoubtable Persian king Cyrus, he was about to be burned alive when he called Solon’s name and shouted (something like) “Solon, you were right” (again this is legend). Cyrus asked about the nature of such unusual invocations, and he told him about Solon’s warning. This impressed Cyrus so much that he decided to spare Croesus’ life, as he reflected on the possibilities as far as his own fate was concerned. People were thoughtful at that time.
If You’re So Rich, Why Aren’t You So Smart?
An illustration of the effect of randomness on social pecking order and jealousy, through two characters of opposite attitudes. On the concealed rare event. How things in modern life may change rather rapidly, except, perhaps, in dentistry.
Nero Tulip
Hit by Lightning
Nero Tulip became obsessed with trading after witnessing a strange scene one spring day as he was visiting the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. A red convertible Porsche, driven at several times the c
출판사 서평
"[Taleb is] Wall Street’s principal dissident. . . . [Fooled By Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church.”
- Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker
“Fascinating . . . Taleb will grab you.”
- Peter L. Bernstein, author of Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
“Recalls the best of scientist/essayists like Richard Dawkins . . . and Stephen Jay Gould.”
- Michael Schrage, author of Serious Play
“We need a book like this . . . fun to read, refreshingly independent-minded.”
- Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance
기본정보
ISBN | 9780812975215 ( 0812975219 ) |
---|---|
발행(출시)일자 | 2005년 08월 23일 |
쪽수 | 368쪽 |
크기 |
131 * 205
* 20
mm
/ 286 g
|
총권수 | 1권 |
언어 | 영어 |
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