The Black Swan
없습니다
도서+교보Only(교보배송)을 함께 15,000원 이상 구매 시 무료배송
15,000원 미만 시 2,500원 배송비 부과
20,000원 미만 시 2,500원 배송비 부과
15,000원 미만 시 2,500원 배송비 부과
1Box 기준 : 도서 10권
알립니다.
- 해외주문도서는 고객님의 요청에 의해 주문하는 '개인 오더' 상품이기 때문에, 단순한 고객변심/착오로 인한 취소, 반품, 교환의 경우 '해외주문 반품/취소 수수료'를 부담하셔야 합니다. 이점 유의하여 주시기 바랍니다.
- 반품/취소 수수료:(1)서양도서-판매정가의 12%, (2)일본도서-판매정가의 7% (반품/취소 수수료는, 수입제반비용(FedEx수송비용, 관세사비, 보세창고료, 내륙 운송비, 통관비 등)과 재고리스크(미판매 리스크, 환차손)에 따른 비용을 포함하며, 서양도서는 판매정가의 12%, 일본도서는 판매정가의 7%가 적용됩니다.)
- 외국도서의 경우 해외제공정보로만 서비스되어 미표기가된 정보가 있을 수 있습니다. 필요한 정보가 있을경우 1:1 문의게시판 을 이용하여 주십시오.
해외주문/바로드림/제휴사주문/업체배송건의 경우 1+1 증정상품이 발송되지 않습니다.
패키지
북카드
책 소개
이 책이 속한 분야
Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge. Part literary essayist, part empiricist, part no-nonsense mathematical trader, he is currently taking a break as Dean's Professor in the Sciences of Uncertainty at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. His last book, the bestseller Fooled by Randomness, has been published in nineteen languages. Taleb lives mostly in New York.
PROLOGUE ON THE PLUMAGE OF BIRDS Before the discovery of Australia, people in the old world were convinced thatallswans were white, an unassailable belief as it seemed completely confirmed by empirical evidence. The sighting of the first black swan might have been an interesting surprise for a few ornithologists (and others extremely concerned with the coloring of birds), but that is not where the significance of the story lies. It illustrates a severe limitation to our learning from observations or experience and the fragility of our knowledge. One single observation can invalidate a general statement derived from millennia of confirmatory sightings of millions of white swans. All you need is one single (and, I am told, quite ugly) black bird.* I push one step beyond this philosophical-logical question into an empirical reality, and one that has obsessed me since childhood. What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes. First, it is anoutlier,as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrenceafterthe fact, making it explainable and predictable. I stop and summarize the triplet: rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability.* A small number of Black Swans explain almost everything in our world, from the success of ideas and religions, to the dynamics of historical events, to elements of our own personal lives. Ever since we left the Pleistocene, some ten millennia ago, the effect of these Black Swans has been increasing. It started accelerating during the industrial revolution, as the world started getting more complicated, while ordinary events, the ones we study and discuss and try to predict from reading the newspapers, have become increasingly inconsequential. Just imagine how little your understanding of the world on the eve of the events of 1914 would have helped you guess what was to happen next. (Don't cheat by using the explanations drilled into your cranium by your dull high school teacher). How about the rise of Hitler and the subsequent war? How about the precipitous demise of the Soviet bloc? How about the rise of Islamic fundamentalism? How about the spread of the Internet? How about the market crash of 1987 (and the more unexpected recovery)? Fads, epidemics, fashion, ideas, the emergence of art genres and schools. All follow these Black Swan dynamics. Literally, just about everything of significance around you might qualify. This combination of low predictability and large impact makes the Black Swan a great puzzle; but that is not yet the core concern of this book. Add to this phenomenon the fact that we tend to act as if it does not exist! I don't mean just you, your cousin Joey, and me, but almost all "social scientists" who, for over a century, have operated under the false belief that their tools could measure uncertainty. For the applications of the sciences of uncertainty to real-world problems has had ridiculous effects; I have been privileged to see it in finance and economics. Go ask your portfolio manager for his definition of "risk," and odds are that he will supply you with ameasurethatexcludesthe possibility of the Black Swanhence one that has no better predictive value for assessing the total risks than astrology (we will see how they dress up the intellectual fraud with mathematics). This problem is endemic in social matters. The central idea of this book concerns our blindness with respect to randomness, particularly the large deviations: Why do we, scientists or nonscientists, hotshots or regular Joes, tend to see the pennie
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications "The Black Swan" will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probabilitytheory. "The Black Swan" is a landmark book-itself a black swan.
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictab??it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applicationsThe Black Swanwill change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory.The Black Swanis a landmark bookitself a black swan. *2nd Edition, With a new essay: "On Robustness and Fragility"
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictab??it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark bookitself a black swan. *2nd Edition, With a new essay: "On Robustness and Fragility" From the Hardcover edition.
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applicationsThe Black Swanwill change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory.The Black Swanis a landmark bookitself a black swan.
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the impossible. For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications. The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory.The Black Swan is a landmark book, itself a black swan.
" The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works."-Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "Hugely enjoyable-compelling . . . easy to dip into."- Financial Times "A masterpiece."-Chris Anderson, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant."-Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times From the Trade Paperback edition.
"The Black Swanchanged my view of how the world works."-Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "Hugely enjoyable-compelling . . . easy to dip into."-Financial Times "A masterpiece."-Chris Anderson, author ofThe Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant."-Niall Ferguson,Los Angeles Times From the Trade Paperback edition.
Taleb delivers a groundbreaking look at the role played by the unexpected in life and history, and a fascinating examination of why we know less than we think we do--and what to do about it.
작가정보
저자(글) Taleb, Nassim Nicholas
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge. Part literary essayist, part empiricist, part no-nonsense mathematical trader, he is currently taking a break as Dean’s Professor in the Sciences of Uncertainty at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. His last book, the bestseller Fooled by Randomness, has been published in nineteen languages. Taleb lives mostly in New York.
목차
Umberto Eco's antilibrary, or how we seek validation p. 1 The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic p. 3 Yevgenia's black swan p. 23 The speculator and the prostitute p. 26 One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker p. 38 Confirmation shmonfirmation! p. 51 The narrative fallacy p. 62 Living in the antechamber of hope p. 85 Glacomo Casanova's unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence p. 100 The ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd p. 122 We just can't predict p. 135 The scandal of prediction p. 137 How to look for bird poop p. 165 Epistemocracy, a dream p. 190 Appelles the painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict? p. 201 Those gray swans of Extremistan p. 213 From Mediocristan to Extremistan, and back p. 215 The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud p. 229 The aesthetics of randomness p. 253 Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places p. 274 The uncertainty of the phony p. 286 The end p. 293 Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan p. 295 Epilogue : Yevgenia's white swans p. 299 Table of Contents provided by Blackwell. All Rights Reserved.
기본정보
ISBN | 9781400063512 ( 1400063515 ) |
---|---|
발행(출시)일자 | 2007년 04월 17일 |
쪽수 | 480쪽 |
크기 |
155 * 236
* 43
mm
/ 726 g
|
총권수 | 1권 |
언어 | 영어 |
Klover
e교환권은 적립 일로부터 180일 동안 사용 가능합니다.
리워드는 작성 후 다음 날 제공되며, 발송 전 작성 시 발송 완료 후 익일 제공됩니다.
리워드는 리뷰 종류별로 구매한 아이디당 한 상품에 최초 1회 작성 건들에 대해서만 제공됩니다.
판매가 1,000원 미만 도서의 경우 리워드 지급 대상에서 제외됩니다.
일부 타인의 권리를 침해하거나 불편을 끼치는 것을 방지하기 위해 아래에 해당하는 Klover 리뷰는 별도의 통보 없이 삭제될 수 있습니다.
- 도서나 타인에 대해 근거 없이 비방을 하거나 타인의 명예를 훼손할 수 있는 리뷰
- 도서와 무관한 내용의 리뷰
- 인신공격이나 욕설, 비속어, 혐오발언이 개재된 리뷰
- 의성어나 의태어 등 내용의 의미가 없는 리뷰
리뷰는 1인이 중복으로 작성하실 수는 있지만, 평점계산은 가장 최근에 남긴 1건의 리뷰만 반영됩니다.
구매 후 리뷰 작성 시, e교환권 200원 적립
문장수집
e교환권은 적립 일로부터 180일 동안 사용 가능합니다. 리워드는 작성 후 다음 날 제공되며, 발송 전 작성 시 발송 완료 후 익일 제공됩니다.
리워드는 한 상품에 최초 1회만 제공됩니다.
주문취소/반품/절판/품절 시 리워드 대상에서 제외됩니다.
구매 후 리뷰 작성 시, e교환권 100원 적립