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해외주문 [Book] Behavioral Modeling and Simulation From Individuals to Societies

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상품상세정보
ISBN 9780309118620(030911862X)
쪽수 403쪽
언어 English
크기 158(W) X 227(H) X 23(T) (mm)
제본형태 Paperback
삽화유무 삽화있음
총권수 1권
리딩지수 Level Scholarly/Graduate

책소개

이 책이 속한 분야

Understanding and predicting group behavior has long been a goal of both researchers and governments. That goal has taken on increased urgency in today's complex world, in which governments have to deal both domestically and internationally with many cultures, as well as with cross-national terrorist groups.
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* 해당 상품의 상세구성정보를 준비중입니다.

목차

Executive Summaryp. 1
Conclusionsp. 3
Recommendationsp. 4
Integrated Cross-Disciplinary Research Programsp. 5
Independent Research Thrustsp. 5
Theory Developmentp. 6
Uncertainty, Dynamic Adaptability, and Rational Behaviorp. 6
Data Collection Methodsp. 7
Federated Modelsp. 7
Validation and Usefulnessp. 8
Tools and Infrastructure for Model Buildingp. 9
Multidisciplinary Conferences and Workshopsp. 9
Roadmap for Future Research and Developmentp. 10
Background and Need for Organizational Modelsp. 11
Introductionp. 13
Study Task and Objectivesp. 14
National Academies' Responsep. 15
The Committee's Approachp. 15
Defining the Project Scopep. 16
Gathering Datap. 16
Data Analysis and Reviewp. 16
Concepts and Definitionsp. 16
Cautions for IOS Modelingp. 19
Organization of the Reportp. 20
Referencesp. 22
Military Missions and How IOS Models Can Helpp. 23
Military Missions Now and into the Futurep. 24
Overarching Strategy and Operational Enablersp. 24
Dimensions of the New Battlespacep. 26
The Impact of Urbanizationp. 26
The Growing Importance of Pre- and Postconflict Operationsp. 28
Changes in the Nature and Scale of Intervention Operationsp. 30
How IOS Behavioral Models Can Help the Militaryp. 32
Potential Use of IOS Models for Analysis, Forecasting, and Planningp. 34
Models for Understanding, Forecasting, Shaping, and Responding to Adversary Behaviorp. 36
Models for Understanding, Forecasting, and Shaping Societal Behaviorp. 38
Models for Understanding Enemy Command and Control Structuresp. 39
Models for Training and Mission Rehearsalp. 40
Models for Military Systems Development, Evaluation, and Acquisitionp. 42
Models for Enabling Command and Control Weapons Systemsp. 43
Representative Model-Addressable Problems in a Scenario Contextp. 45
Overview of Current DoD IOS Modeling Effortsp. 48
The DMSO Master Plan for Modeling and Simulationp. 48
Selected Current DoD Behavioral Modeling Effortsp. 51
OneSAF Family of Models and Simulationsp. 52
Task Network Models and Toolsp. 52
Cognitive and Cognitive-Affective Architectures and Modelsp. 53
Multiagent Systemsp. 54
Massively Multiplayer Online Gamingp. 54
DIME/PMESII Modelsp. 55
Simulation Frameworks and Toolsp. 58
Other Effortsp. 58
Major Challenges for Development of IOS Models for Military Applicationsp. 58
Interoperability Challengesp. 59
Data Collection and Validation Challengesp. 60
Conclusionp. 61
Appendixp. 62
Referencesp. 84
State of the Art in Organizational Modeling
Categories of Models: Initial Empirical Resultsp. 91
Methodologyp. 92
Resultsp. 92
Four-Part Organizing Framework for Modelsp. 94
Part II Guidep. 95
Referencesp. 96
Verbal Conceptual and Cultural Modelsp. 97
Verbal Conceptual Modelsp. 97
What Are Verbal Conceptual Models?p. 97
State of the Art for Verbal Conceptual Modelsp. 99
Relevance to Modeling Requirementsp. 100
Major Limitationsp. 102
Verification and Validation Issuesp. 103
Future Research and Development Requirementsp. 103
Cultural Modelingp. 104
What Is Cultural Modeling?p. 104
What Is Culture?p. 105
State of the Art of Culture Modelsp. 105
Cultural Inventory Modelsp. 105
Dominant Trait Modelsp. 109
Semantic Modelsp. 113
Cultural Domain Analysisp. 115
Relevance to Modeling Requirements and Major Limitationsp. 117
Data, Verification, and Validation Issuesp. 118
Future Research and Development Needsp. 118
Referencesp. 119
Macro-Level Formal Modelsp. 122
System Dynamics Modelsp. 122
What Is System Dynamics Modeling?p. 122
State of the Art in System Dynamics Modelingp. 129
Early History of System Dynamicsp. 129
More Recent Applications of System Dynamics Modelingp. 130
Environments for System Dynamics Modelingp. 133
Relevance, Limitations, and Future Directionsp. 133
Organizational Modelingp. 135
What Is Organizational Modeling?p. 135
State of the Art in Organizational Modelingp. 138
Organization Theory Modelsp. 138
Organizational Design Modelsp. 141
Relevance, Limitations, and Future Directionsp. 143
Referencesp. 144
Micro-Level Formal Modelsp. 149
Cognitive Architecturesp. 149
What Are Cognitive Architectures?p. 150
State of the Artp. 153
ACT-Rp. 155
Soarp. 155
Epicp. 156
Cognetp. 157
Omarp. 157
Midasp. 157
Samplep. 157
Apexp. 158
Other Architecturesp. 158
Current Trendsp. 159
Verification and Validation Issuesp. 159
Relevance, Limitations, and Future Directionsp. 162
Relevancep. 162
Major Limitationsp. 164
Future Directionsp. 166
Affective Models and Cognitive-Affective Architecturesp. 167
What Are Cognitive-Affective Architectures?p. 168
Applications and Benefits of Cognitive-Affective Architecturesp. 171
State of the Artp. 174
Models of Cognitive Appraisalp. 175
Models of Emotion Effects on Cognition and Cognitive-Affective Interactionsp. 178
Cognitive-Affective Architecturesp. 180
Relevance to Modeling Requirementsp. 181
Major Limitationsp. 182
Verification and Validation Issuesp. 182
Future Research and Development Requirementsp. 184
Expert Systemsp. 184
What Is an Expert System?p. 185
State of the Artp. 188
Expert System Shells and Development Environmentsp. 189
Automatic Knowledge Acquisition and Learningp. 189
Hybrid and Embedded Systemsp. 190
Representing and Reasoning Under Uncertaintyp. 190
Relevance, Limitations, and Future Directionsp. 190
Relevancep. 190
Major Limitationsp. 191
Future Research and Development Requirementsp. 193
Decision Theory and Game Theoryp. 193
Overviewp. 193
What Are Decision Theory Models?p. 195
What Are Game Theory Models?p. 199
Relevance, Limitations, and Future Directionsp. 202
Relevancep. 202
Major Limitationsp. 205
Future Research and Development Requirementsp. 205
Referencesp. 206
Meso-Level Formal Modelsp. 215
Voting and Social Decision Modelsp. 215
What Are Voting Models?p. 216
State of the Art in Social Decision Modelingp. 216
Preference Theoryp. 216
Social Choice Theoryp. 217
Strategic Votingp. 219
Relevance, Limitations, and Future Directions for Social Decision Modelsp. 220
Social Network Modelsp. 221
What Are Social Network Models?p. 222
State of the Art in Social Network Modelsp. 223
Nodes and Tiesp. 223
Multimode Networksp. 224
Cohesion Modelsp. 225
Centrality Modelsp. 225
Equivalence Modelsp. 226
Cohesive Subgroup Modelsp. 227
Network Evolutionp. 228
Relevance, Limitations, and Future Directionsp. 229
Link Analysisp. 231
What Is Link Analysis?p. 231
State of the Artp. 232
Relevance, Limitations, and Future Directionsp. 234
Agent-Based Modeling of Social Systemsp. 236
What Is Agent-Based Modeling?p. 237
State of the Artp. 238
ABM Structural Propertiesp. 240
Number of Agents and Cognitive Sophisticationp. 241
Social Sophisticationp. 242
Agents in Gridsp. 242
ABM and Learningp. 243
ABM and Social Networksp. 244
ABM Development Issuesp. 245
Relevance, Limitations, and Future Directionsp. 246
Major Limitationsp. 247
Degree of Realismp. 247
Model Trade-Offsp. 248
Modeling of Actionsp. 249
Research and Development Requirementsp. 249
Tool Developmentp. 249
Forecasting and Possibility Analysisp. 251
Data Farmingp. 253
Cross-Disciplinary Initiativesp. 254
Building Expertisep. 255
Expected Outcomesp. 256
Referencesp. 256
Gamesp. 261
What Are Massively Multiplayer Online Games?p. 261
State of the Artp. 264
Games as an Interaction Mediump. 264
Games as a Set of Engaging and Immersive Modelsp. 264
Games as an Interactive Laboratoryp. 265
Relevance, Limitations, and Future Directionsp. 266
Games as an Interaction Mediump. 266
Games as a Set of Engaging and Immersive Modelsp. 267
Games as an Interactive Laboratoryp. 268
Referencesp. 269
Common Challenges in IOS Modelingp. 271
Integration and Interoperabilityp. 271
Model Interoperability: Incompatibilities and Functionality Gapsp. 272
Interface Incompatibilityp. 272
Ontological Incompatibilityp. 274
Formalism Incompatibilityp. 274
Subdomain Gapsp. 275
Recommendations for Resolving Gaps in Model Interoperabilityp. 278
Dealing with Interface Incompatibilityp. 278
Dealing with I-O Format Incompatibilitiesp. 278
Dealing with Logical Incompatibilitiesp. 280
Dealing with Model Persistence Format Incompatibilitiesp. 280
Dealing with Ontological Incompatibilityp. 280
Dealing with Formalism Incompatibilityp. 282
Subdomain Gapsp. 284
Frameworks and Toolkitsp. 284
General Issues and Requirementsp. 284
IDE Development Goals and Examplesp. 291
Human and System Modeling and Analysis Toolkitp. 292
Modeling Terrorist Network Evolutionp. 295
Modeling Iraqi Recruiting Activityp. 297
Advanced Analysis Capabilitiesp. 298
Verification, Validation, and Accreditationp. 301
General Issues: Validation for Usep. 301
Validation for Understanding and Explorationp. 304
Validation for Actionp. 305
Military Approaches to Verification, Validation, and Accreditationp. 313
Validation Issues Specific to Individual Modeling Approachesp. 317
Validation of Conceptual Modelsp. 317
Validation of Cultural Modelsp. 318
Validation of Cognitive Modelsp. 318
Validation of Cognitive-Affective Architecturesp. 319
Validation of Agent-Based Modelsp. 319
Recommendations for Developing and Validating IOS Modelsp. 320
Check with Multiple Expertsp. 320
Keep the Model as Simple as Possible for Its Purposep. 321
Examine "What Might Be" as Well as "What Is"p. 321
Use Model Touching for Validationp. 322
Data Issues and Challengesp. 324
Referencesp. 326
State of the Art With Respect to Military Needsp. 329
Disrupt Terrorist Networksp. 329
Forecast Adversary Response to Courses of Actionp. 331
Societal Forecastingp. 332
Crowd Control Trainingp. 333
Organizational Design: Force Composition and Command and Control Architecturep. 334
Referencep. 336
Addressing Unmet Modeling Needsp. 337
Pitfalls, Lessons Learned, and Future Needsp. 339
Pitfalls in Matching the Model to the Real Worldp. 340
Model-Problem Mismatchp. 340
All-Purpose Models That Ultimately Serve No Purposep. 341
Verification, Validation, and Accreditationp. 343
Problems in Designing the Internal Structure of a Modelp. 345
Pitfall of Unvalidated Universal Lawsp. 345
One-Dimensional Modelsp. 346
Kitchen Sink Modelsp. 347
Pitfalls in Dealing with Uncertainty and Adaptationp. 348
Unrealistic Expectationsp. 348
Illusions of Permanencep. 349
Problems in Combining Components and Federating Modelsp. 350
Moving from Individual to Collective Actionp. 350
Using Collective Attributes to Predict Individual Actionp. 351
Assemblage of Partsp. 352
Summary of Future Needsp. 354
Referencesp. 355
Recommendations for Military-Sponsored Modeling Researchp. 356
Integrated Cross-Disciplinary Research Programsp. 357
Independent Research Thrustsp. 358
Theory Developmentp. 358
Uncertainty, Dynamic Adaptability, and Rational Behaviorp. 359
Data Collection Methodsp. 360
Federated Modelsp. 361
Validation and Usefulnessp. 362
Tools and Infrastructure for Model Buildingp. 362
Multidisciplinary Conferences and Workshopsp. 364
Roadmap for Recommended Researchp. 365
Referencesp. 369
Appendixes
Acronyms and Abbreviationsp. 373
Exemplary Scenario and Vignettes to Illustrate Potential Model Usesp. 381
Candidate DIME/PMESII Modeling Paradigmsp. 389
Biographical Sketches of Committee Members and Staffp. 397
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.

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