Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes.

“[Taleb is] Wall Street’s principal dissident. . . . [Fooled By Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church.”
?Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker

Finally in paperback, the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about the markets and the world.This book is about luck: more precisely how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences.

Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill?the world of business?Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, iconoclastic, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in all of our lives.

'세상에서 일어나는 많은 일들은 우리가 생각한 것보다 훨씬 더 우연적인 사건이나 운에 의해 결정되며, 그렇기 때문에 운을 능력이라 착각하지 말고 겸손한 태도를 가져야 한다' 조화로운 승자를 위한 지침서. 아직 성공에 이르지 못해 낙심한 사람들에게 인생의 어디에선가 행운을 놓친 것이 아닌지 돌아 보게 만들면서 앞으로 다가올 행운을 미리 준비하는 태도를 가지게 해준다.

Fooled by Randomness ( Incerto #1 ) 도서 상세이미지

Part. I Solon's warning
1. If you're so rich, why aren't you so smart? … 5
2. A bizarre accounting method … 22
3. A mathematical meditation on history … 43
4. Randomness, nonsense, and the scientific intellectual … 70
5. Survival of the least fit - can evolution be fooled by randomness? … 79
6. Skewness and asymmetry … 97
7. The problem of induction … 116

Part. II Monkeys on typewriters
8. Too many millionaires next door … 139
9. It is easier to buy and sell than fry an egg … 149
10. Loser takes all - on the nonlinearities of life … 172
11. Randomness and our mind : we are probability blind … 182

Part. III Wax in my ears
12. Gamblers' ticks and pigeons in a box … 226
13. Carneades comes to Rome : on probability and skepticism … 234
14. Bacchus abandons antony … 245

Epilogue : Solon told you so … 250
Postscript : three afterthoughts in the shower … 253

Chapter 1

Croesus, King of Lydia, was considered the richest man of his time. To this day Romance languages use the expression “rich as Croesus” to describe a person of excessive wealth. He was said to be visited by Solon, the Greek legislator known for his dignity, reserve, upright morals, humil... 더보기

Chapter 1

Croesus, King of Lydia, was considered the richest man of his time. To this day Romance languages use the expression “rich as Croesus” to describe a person of excessive wealth. He was said to be visited by Solon, the Greek legislator known for his dignity, reserve, upright morals, humility, frugality, wisdom, intelligence, and courage. Solon did not display the smallest surprise at the wealth and splendor surrounding his host, nor the tiniest admiration for their owner. Croesus was so irked by the manifest lack of impression on the part of this illustrious visitor that he attempted to extract from him some acknowledgment. He asked him if he had known a happier man than him. Solon cited the life of a man who led a noble existence and died while in battle. Prodded for more, he gave similar examples of heroic but terminated lives, until Croesus, irate, asked him point-blank if he was not to be considered the happiest man of all. Solon answered: “The observation of the numerous misfortunes that attend all conditions forbids us to grow insolent upon our present enjoyments, or to admire a man’s happiness that may yet, in course of time, suffer change. For the uncertain future has yet to come, with all variety of future; and him only to whom the divinity has [guaranteed] continued happiness until the end we may call happy.”

The modern equivalent has been no less eloquently voiced by the baseball coach Yogi Berra, who seems to have translated Solon’s outburst from the pure Attic Greek into no less pure Brooklyn English with “it ain’t over until it’s over,” or, in a less dignified manner, with “it ain’t over until the fat lady sings.” In addition, aside from his use of the vernacular, the Yogi Berra quote presents an advantage of being true, while the meeting between Croesus and Solon was one of those historical facts that benefited from the imagination of the chroniclers, as it was chronologically impossible for the two men to have been in the same location.

Part I is concerned with the degree to which a situation may yet, in the course of time, suffer change. For we can be tricked by situations involving mostly the activities of the goddess Fortuna?Jupiter’s firstborn daughter. Solon was wise enough to get the following point; that which came with the help of luck could be taken away by luck (and often rapidly and unexpectedly at that). The flipside, which deserves to be considered as well (in fact it is even more of our concern), is that things that come with little help from luck are more resistant to randomness. Solon also had the intuition of a problem that has obsessed science for the past three centuries. It is called the problem of induction. I call it in this book the black swan or the rare event. Solon even understood another linked problem, which I call the skewness issue; it does not matter how frequently something succeeds if failure is too costly to bear.

Yet the story of Croesus has another twist. Having lost a battle to the redoubtable Persian king Cyrus, he was about to be burned alive when he called Solon’s name and shouted (something like) “Solon, you were right” (again this is legend). Cyrus asked about the nature of such unusual invocations, and he told him about Solon’s warning. This impressed Cyrus so much that he decided to spare Croesus’ life, as he reflected on the possibilities as far as his own fate was concerned. People were thoughtful at that time.

If You’re So Rich, Why Aren’t You So Smart?

An illustration of the effect of randomness on social pecking order and jealousy, through two characters of opposite attitudes. On the concealed rare event. How things in modern life may change rather rapidly, except, perhaps, in dentistry.

Nero Tulip

Hit by Lightning

Nero Tulip became obsessed with trading after witnessing a strange scene one spring day as he was visiting the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. A red convertible Porsche, driven at several times the c 닫기

"[Taleb is] Wall Street’s principal dissident. . . . [Fooled By Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church.”
- Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker

“Fascinating . . . Taleb will grab you.”
- Peter L. Bernstein,... 더보기

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ISBN	9780812975215(0812975219)
쪽수	316쪽
언어	English
크기	131(W) X 205(H) X 20(T) (mm)
제본형태	Paperback
총권수	1권
리딩지수 Level	General Adult

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[Book] Fooled by Randomness ( Incerto #1 ) The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

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