Scenario Planning in Organizations
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While there are several books that cover portions of the topic of scenario planning, none of them cover it in its entirety. This book will add important new knowledge and fill in the information gaps by providing a comprehensive view of scenario planning within the larger organizational and national contexts.
Thomas J. Chermack is an Assistant Professor at the Colorado State University in the Organizational Performance and Change program. Chermack worked as a consultant with Personnel Decisions International for eight years leading efforts in training, change management initiatives, organization development interventions and high performance work team initiations.Tom is also the founder and managing partner of Chermack Scenarios, a scenario planning consultancy affiliated with the Centre for Innovative Leadership. He has authored over 50 research reports, and his research has appeared in scholarly publications such as Futures, Futures Research Quarterly, Human Resource Development Review, The Academy of Strategic Management Journal, and the Journal of Leadership and Organizational Studies among others.Foreword author Andrew H. Van de Ven is Vernon H. Heath Professor of Organizational Innovation and Change in the Carlson School of Management of the University of Minnesota, and author of numerous books on Organizational Development.
Thomas J. Chermack is Assistant Professor in Organizational Performance and Change and Director of the Scenario Planning Institute at Colorado State University. He is also the founder and managing partner of Chermack Scenarios. He has facilitated scenario projects in companies such as Cargill, Saudi Aramco, General Mills, Motorola, and many others.
Scenario planning helps organization leaders, executives and decision-makers envision and develop strategies for multiple possible futures instead of just one. It enables organizations to become resilient and agile, carefully calibrating their responses and adapting quickly to new circumstances in a fast-changing environment. This book is the most comprehensive treatment to date of the scenario planning process. Unlike existing books it offers a thorough discussion of the evolution and theoretical foundations of scenario planning, examining its connections to learning theory, decision-making theory, mental model theory and more. Chermack emphasizes that scenario planning is far more than a simple set of steps to follow, as so many other practice-focused books do-he addresses the subtleties and complexities of planning. And, unique among scenario planning books, he deals not just with developing different scenarios but also with applying scenarios once they have been constructed, and assessing the impact of the scenario project. Using a case study based on a real scenario project Chermack lays out a comprehensive five phase scenario planning system-project preparation, scenario exploration, scenario development, scenario implementation and project assessment. Each chapter describes specific techniques for gathering and analyzing relevant data with a particular emphasis on the use of workshops to encourage dialogue. He offers a scenario project worksheet to help readers structure and manage scenario projects as well as avoid common pitfalls, and a discussion, based in recent neurological findings, of how scenario planning helps people to overcome barriers to creative thinking. "This book is about action and performance. Compelling and thoroughly researched, it offers every business executive a playbook for including uncertainty in the organizational change process and driving competitive advantage". -- Tim Reynolds, Vice President, Talent and Organization Effectiveness, Whirlpool Corporation
Scenario planning helps organization leaders, executives and decision-makers envision and develop strategies for multiple possible futures instead of just one. It enables organizations to become resilient and agile, carefully calibrating their responses and adapting quickly to new circumstances in a fast-changing environment. This book is the most comprehensive treatment to date of the scenario planning process. Unlike existing books it offers a thorough discussion of the evolution and theoretical foundations of scenario planning, examining its connections to learning theory, decision-making theory, mental model theory and more. Chermack emphasizes that scenario planning is far more than a simple set of steps to follow, as so many other practice-focused books do-he addresses the subtleties and complexities of planning. And, unique among scenario planning books, he deals not just with developing different scenarios but also with applying scenarios once they have been constructed, and assessing the impact of the scenario project. Using a case study based on a real scenario project Chermack lays out a comprehensive five phase scenario planning system-project preparation, scenario exploration, scenario development, scenario implementation and project assessment. Each chapter describes specific techniques for gathering and analyzing relevant data with a particular emphasis on the use of workshops to encourage dialogue. He offers a scenario project worksheet to help readers structure and manage scenario projects as well as avoid common pitfalls, and a discussion, based in recent neurological findings, of how scenario planning helps people to overcome barriers to creative thinking. ??his book is about action and performance. Compelling and thoroughly researched, it offers every business executive a playbook for including uncertainty in the organizational change process and driving competitive advantage?? -- Tim Reynolds, Vice President, Talent and Organization Effectiveness, Whirlpool Corporation
While there are several books that cover portions of the topic of scenario planning, none of them cover it in its entirety. The key weaknesses shown in most competitive titles in publication: 1) None address the complexity (practical and theoretical) of the scenario planning process. 2) Recent books are edited volumes that do not incorporate a unified perspective and are rather disjointed collections of chapters unconnected from each other. 3) None of the books currently available provide any mention of evaluative techniques. Thus, there are multiple gaps in the literature that remain unaddressed. This book will add important new knowledge and fill in the information gaps by providing a comprehensive view of scenario planning within the larger organizational and national contexts. The work will address scenario planning as a system itself, its role and connection to organizational strategy, and will provide discussion of the importance of theory and provide a theory of the system. The goal is a book that will discuss theory in a way that is useful to practitioners, describe research studies that bring academic rigor, and yet, also inform practice in that they demonstrate the effectiveness of scenario planning. Evaluating scenarios and scenario planning projects will also be discussed, as well as a phased process for conducting, managing, and framing scenario work. The key contribution of the proposed text is that it will genuinely bridge theory and practice, research and implementation, and generally serve as a text suitable for graduate courses, and thoughtful practitioners seeking understanding beyond a "how-to" manual.
While there are several books that cover portions of the topic of scenario planning, none of them cover it in its entirety. The key weaknesses shown in most competitive titles in publication are:1) None address the complexity (practical and theoretical) of the scenario-planning process.2) Recent books are edited volumes that do not incorporate a unified perspective and are rather disjointed collections of chapters unconnected from each other.3) None of the books currently available provide any mention of evaluative techniques. Thus, there are multiple gaps in the literature that remain unaddressed.This book will add important new knowledge and fill in the information gaps by providing a comprehensive view of scenario planning within the larger organizational and national contexts. The work will address scenario planning as a system itself, its role and connection to organizational strategy, and will provide discussion of the importance of theory and provide a theory of the system.The goal is a book that will discuss theory in a way that is useful to practitioners, describe research studies that bring academic rigor, and yet, also inform practice in that they demonstrate the effectiveness of scenario planning. Evaluating scenarios and scenario planning projects will also be discussed, as well as a phased process for conducting, managing, and framing scenario work. The key contribution of the proposed text is that it will genuinely bridge theory and practice, research and implementation, and generally serve as a text suitable for graduate courses, and thoughtful practitioners seeking understanding beyond a "how-to" manual.
While there are several books that cover portions of the topic of scenario planning, none of them cover it in its entirety. The key weaknesses shown in most competitive titles in publication: None address the complexity (practical and theoretical) of the scenario planning process. Recent books are edited volumes that do not incorporate a unified perspective and are rather disjointed collections of chapters unconnected from each other. None of the books currently available provide any mention of evaluative techniques. Thus, there are multiple gaps in the literature that remain unaddressed.This book will add important new knowledge and fill in the information gaps by providing a comprehensive view of scenario planning within the larger organizational and national contexts. The work will address scenario planning as a system itself, its role and connection to organizational strategy, and will provide discussion of the importance of theory and provide a theory of the system.The goal is a book that will discuss theory in a way that is useful to practitioners, describe research studies that bring academic rigor, and yet, also inform practice in that they demonstrate the effectiveness of scenario planning. Evaluating scenarios and scenario planning projects will also be discussed, as well as a phased process for conducting, managing, and framing scenario work. The key contribution of the proposed text is that it will genuinely bridge theory and practice, research and implementation, and generally serve as a text suitable for graduate courses, and thoughtful practitioners seeking understanding beyond a '?ow-to'?manual.
While there are several books that cover portions of the topic of scenario planning, none of them cover it in its entirety. The key weaknesses shown in most competitive titles in publication: None address the complexity (practical and theoretical) of the scenario planning process. Recent books are edited volumes that do not incorporate a unified perspective and are rather disjointed collections of chapters unconnected from each other. None of the books currently available provide any mention of evaluative techniques. Thus, there are multiple gaps in the literature that remain unaddressed. This book will add important new knowledge and fill in the information gaps by providing a comprehensive view of scenario planning within the larger organizational and national contexts. The work will address scenario planning as a system itself, its role and connection to organizational strategy, and will provide discussion of the importance of theory and provide a theory of the system. The goal is a book that will discuss theory in a way that is useful to practitioners, describe research studies that bring academic rigor, and yet, also inform practice in that they demonstrate the effectiveness of scenario planning. Evaluating scenarios and scenario planning projects will also be discussed, as well as a phased process for conducting, managing, and framing scenario work. The key contribution of the proposed text is that it will genuinely bridge theory and practice, research and implementation, and generally serve as a text suitable for graduate courses, and thoughtful practitioners seeking understanding beyond a Show-to manual.
With scenario planning, leaders, executives, and decision makers can develop strategies for multiple futures, making their organizations resilient, agile, and capable of adapting to new circumstances at the speed of change. Here Thomas Chermack addresses the method? complexities and, unlike other books, deals not just with developing different scenarios but also with applying those scenarios and assessing their impact.
Scenario planning helps organization leaders, executives and decision-makers envision and develop strategies for multiple possible futures instead of just one. It enables organizations to become resilient and agile, carefully calibrating their responses and adapting quickly to new circumstances in a fast-changing environment. This book is the most comprehensive treatment to date of the scenario planning process. Unlike existing books it offers a thorough discussion of the evolution and theoretical foundations of scenario planning, examining its connections to learning theory, decision-making theory, mental model theory and more. Chermack emphasizes that scenario planning is far more than a simple set of steps to follow, as so many other practice-focused books dohe addresses the subtleties and complexities of planning. And, unique among scenario planning books, he deals not just with developing different scenarios but also with applying scenarios once they have been constructed, and assessing the impact of the scenario project. Using a case study based on a real scenario project Chermack lays out a comprehensive five phase scenario planning systemproject preparation, scenario exploration, scenario development, scenario implementation and project assessment. Each chapter describes specific techniques for gathering and analyzing relevant data with a particular emphasis on the use of workshops to encourage dialogue. He offers a scenario project worksheet to help readers structure and manage scenario projects as well as avoid common pitfalls, and a discussion, based in recent neurological findings, of how scenario planning helps people to overcome barriers to creative thinking. "This book is about action and performance. Compelling and thoroughly researched, it offers every business executive a playbook for including uncertainty in the organizational change process and driving competitive advantage". -- Tim Reynolds, Vice President, Talent and Organization Effectiveness, Whirlpool Corporation
While there are several books that cover portions of thetopic of scenario planning, none of them cover it in itsentirety. This book will add important new knowledge andfill in the information gaps by providing a comprehensiveview of scenario planning within the largerorganizational and national contexts. The work willaddress scenario planning as a system itself, its roleand connection to organizational strategy, and willprovide discussion of the importance of theory andprovide a theory of the system. The goal is a book thatwill discuss theory in a way that is useful topractitioners, describe research studies that bringacademic rigor, and yet, also inform practice in thatthey demonstrate the effectiveness of scenario planning.Evaluating scenarios and scenario planning projects willalso be discussed, as well as a phased process forconducting, managing, and framing scenario work. The keycontribution of the proposed text is that it willgenuinely bridge theory and practice, research andimplementation, and generally serve as a text suitablefor graduate courses, and thoughtful practitionersseeking understanding beyond a how-to manual.
작가정보
저자(글) Chermack, Thomas
목차
List of Figures p. vii Foreword p. xi Preface p. xv Foundations of Scenario Planning Introduction to Performance-Based Scenario Planning p. 3 Theoretical Foundations of Scenario Planning p. 29 The Performance-Based Scenario System p. 61 Scenario Case Study p. 71 Phases of the Performance-Based Scenario System Phase 1-Project Preparation: Understanding Purpose and Building Support p. 81 Phase 2-Scenario Exploration: Breathing In p. 101 Phase 3-Scenario Development: Digging Deeper p. 127 Phase 4-Scenario Implementation: Putting Scenarios to Use p. 169 Phase 5-Project Assessment: Documenting Results p. 189 Leading Scenario Projects Managing Scenario Projects p. 217 Human Perceptions in the Scenario System p. 233 Initiating Your First Scenario Project p. 241 References p. 247 Index p. 259 About the Author p. 271 Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.
기본정보
ISBN | 9781605094137 ( 1605094137 ) |
---|---|
발행(출시)일자 | 2011년 02월 07일 |
쪽수 | 296쪽 |
크기 |
160 * 235
* 26
mm
/ 458 g
|
총권수 | 1권 |
언어 | 영어 |
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